Kalshi - Prediction Market for Trading the Future

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

MarketPays outOdds

Fed maintains rate

1.52x

Hike 25bps

2.73x

$4,356,046 vol3 more

News · The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet September 15-16, with the rate decision announced at 2:00 PM ET on September 16, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed has held its target range at 3.50%-3.75% at every 2026 meeting so far.

Fed maintains rate

Michigan Senate winner?

MarketPays outOdds

Abdul El-Sayed

Abdul El-Sayed

1.67x

Mike Rogers

Mike Rogers

2.24x

$1,670,767 volTrade

News · Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat is contested in the November general election, with Abdul El-Sayed facing Republican Mike Rogers after El-Sayed claimed the Democratic primary, according to NBC News. The seat was vacated when incumbent Gary Peters declined to seek a third term, and Michigan has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 1994.

Commodities

WTI Oil 15 min · $78.04 target

MarketPays outOdds

Up

1.08x

Down

8.56x

$9,203 volTrade

News · WTI crude fell more than 5% to below $80 per barrel on Monday after surging over 20% in July, as President Donald Trump announced peace talks with Iran would resume following his cancellation of a planned military strike, according to Trading Economics. Easing Middle East tensions and progress in Oman-mediated negotiations over Strait of Hormuz shipping have pressured prices lower after a volatile summer driven by geopolitical risk and OPEC+ supply decisions.

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Market integrityLearn how we keep markets fair

Markets over MonopoliesFair markets protect consumers

Responsible tradingTools and tips for trading smart

Top events

Public Companies Hub

Trade on upcoming KPIs

15 Minute Commodities

$28,193,673 Total vol

Midterms Hub

$573,652,077 Total vol

Crypto Perpetuals

$23,027,614,087 Total vol

Politics

Will Congressional salaries increase?

Before Jan 1, 2030

1.86x

Before Jan 1, 2029

2.29x

$361 vol4 markets

Market integrityLearn how we keep markets fair

Markets over MonopoliesFair markets protect consumers

Responsible tradingTools and tips for trading smart

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?

Before Jan 21, 2029

3.03x

Before 2027

9.09x

$283,726 vol3 markets

Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration

Mar 31 @ 6:00PM

$50 trillion

2.44x

$47.5 trillion

1.43x

$78,213 vol6 markets

Will the SAVE Act become law?

Yes

16.7x

No

1.05x

$10,992,849 vol1 market

Elections

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom

5.88x

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

6.67x

$171,607,435 vol47 markets

2028 Republican presidential nominee

J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance

2.38x

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio

4.17x

$56,123,293 vol38 markets

Which party will win the U.S. House?

Democratic Party

Democratic Party

1.19x

Republican Party

Republican Party

5.88x

$20,333,195 vol2 markets

Texas Senate winner?

Ken Paxton

Ken Paxton

1.96x

James Talarico

James Talarico

2.04x

$7,446,924 vol2 markets

Finance

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

OpenAI

3.03x

xAI

5.26x

$1,038,502 vol14 markets

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

OpenAI

5.90x

Anthropic

1.14x

$326,167 vol2 markets

Will Deel or Rippling IPO first?

Deel

1.55x

Rippling

2.19x

$9,648 vol2 markets

Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?

Discord

Discord

3.03x

Oura

Oura

1.39x

$2,204,712 vol32 markets

Economics

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Jan 13 @ 2:00PM

Soft landing

1.64x

Overheating

3.33x

$58,084 vol4 markets

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Exactly 0 cuts

1.16x

Exactly 1 cut

8.33x

$6,835,478 vol21 markets

More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?

Yes

1.09x

No

9.41x

$31,443,182 vol1 market

How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Above 8%

1.85x

Above 9%

1.96x

$16,108 vol10 markets